izi-monnaie: China, the greatest winner from the global financial crisis ?

Since I had focused the main part of my reading on Britain’s issues, I have decided this week to present a sharply different subject. I focused my reading on articles dealing with Chinese issue. The articles I will go through deal mainly with the outcomes of a survey issued in late October, according to which China’s manufacturing sector has been growing in October at its fastest pace in 18 months.

The main fact issued of this survey is the rise of the PMI index (Purchasing Managers Index) which came from 54.3 in September to 55.2 in October. The sector has been expanding for 8 months in a row now while major economies are just starting to show signs of recovery. The index has ended up its eighth month in a row above the 50 percent line while it was 38.8 last November. The nearly whole of this survey shows positive figures which should give way to a firmly Chinese recovery in the next months. This recovery will rely on the increase of both abroad and domestic demand.
"All these show that economic growth will accelerate in the future, and the growth rate in the fourth quarter is likely to be 9.5 percent," said Zhang Liqun, a researcher with the Development Research Centre, reported by Reuters.

The kickoff of such a recovery has been enabled by a government stimulus to industry, allowing financial packages to companies involving spending on infrastructures to boost the domestic economy. Even though government aid will be curbed in further quarters, China should be able to offset this decrease by relying on external demand, consumer spending and private real estate investment. That is why economists like Brian Jackson are quite confident about Chinese economy for the next quarters. These statements are released by Bloomberg and BBC News articles, which are quite optimistic and seem to rely on the same references.

But while BBC News article is kind of throwing figures and just quoting economists, the Bloomberg journalist tries to infer a little more.
To him, the manufacturing sector soar is kind of boosted by auto sales. Car purchased exceeded 1 million for the first time in September and General Motors said that sales doubled. Car industry grew mainly thanks to tax cuts.

So most of the lights are turning to green, like gross domestic product, which growth accelerated to 8.9 percent in the third quarter from 7.9 percent in the second. The report was not universally positive though. It showed a slump in employment and finished goods inventory and input prices rose.

Basically, all of these four articles are quite optimistic about Chinese recovery boosted by its manufacturing sectors. They are all more or less relying on the same figures, issued from the same survey. So differences between articles are how well they use these figures to try and infer the situation. It is obvious that outlooks are likely to be profitable to China with soaring both external and domestic demand which it can rely on. Furthermore, the restart of private real estate investment and low interest rates should help China to take advantage from the current situation. And if policy makers manage to deal with inflation that high demand should lead to, we might face a major shift in economic position, while China passing over United States. Thus, China could be the greatest winner from the global financial crisis (Bloomberg).